A study on the statistical distribution and regression analysis of novel coronavirus in India

D. Srinivasa Rao, Ch Rajasekhar, GBSR Naidu

Department of ECE, GMR Institute of Technology, Rajam, Andhra Pradesh, India

ABSTRACT

The novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all the parts of the world. India has seen two peaks in the first and second waves, and currently in second place globally after USA. The peak in the first wave was observed in the mid of September, 2020 and in the second wave, the peak is said to be crossed during early May, 2021. Although India is visualizing declining trend and crossed peak on 20th January 2022, many research studies and scientists are still recommending not to lower guard due to possibility of new variants. Proper modelling of COVID-19 distribution may help in determining the course of pandemic and planning the future requirements. The purpose of this study is to analyse the COVID-19 data in India using various probabilistic distributions and identify the best fit model. Further, regression analysis is also carried out to predict the relation among variables like daily cases, deaths, number of people vaccinated and reproduction rate. The effect of current vaccines against the new variants like Omicron in India are discussed at the end.

Keywords:

India, COVID-19, Pandemic, Distribution, Regression, Weibull, Vaccine.